Although it is well recognized that performance is dynamic and varies over time, few studies have examined the role of performance changes in promotion decisions. Despite the notion that unsteady performance is common, and sometimes even expected, employees who display unsteady performance may be negatively evaluated by their managers. Drawing on attribution theory, we examine why and when performance steadiness influences promotion decisions. Across three experiments and one field study, we find that employees who display unsteady (versus steady) performance are less likely to be recommended for promotion, even after controlling for performance levels. Our results also show that perceived competence mediates the relationship between unsteady performance and promotability. Furthermore, job routineness moderates the negative indirect effect of unsteady performance on promotability via perceived competence, such that the indirect effect is weaker when job routineness is lower (Study 3). We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our findings.
