Huddersfield Business School, U. of Huddersfield, UK
Organizations in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments need strategies to survive and thrive. This paper introduces an agent-based model investigating the effects of alternating normal and abnormal conditions on organizational fitness. The model simulates a project-oriented organization with individuals interacting, completing tasks, and developing skills. Different environmental settings affect work pace, individual effectiveness, and project progress. The model illustrates how organizations exposed to periodic VUCA episodes can recover and maintain average performance. During favourable periods overall performance improved, but subsequent return to normal conditions normally led to a temporary dip. However, repeated exposure to alternating environments appears to improve long-term performance and resilience, suggesting that organizations can ‘learn’ from both normal and abnormal situations. Further research is needed to refine the model, investigate outliers, and explore additional agent attributes such as self-efficacy and personal resilience. This research contributes to understanding how organizations adapt and thrive in dynamic environments, offering insights for managers navigating VUCA challenges.
