How are women’s career prospects impacted by organizational decline? A sizeable body of work suggests that organizations appoint women to leadership positions as a turnaround strategy during periods of organizational decline, a phenomenon known as the glass cliff. However, evidence for this phenomenon and its underlying mechanisms are mixed. We explain this mixed evidence by juxtaposing the glass cliff literature with research on status and uncertainty. Relying on this research, we predict that on average, women are less likely to be appointed to leadership positions during organizational decline. However, firms mostly led by women should exhibit a glass cliff effect. Using 1.6 million senior-level job placements within U.S. public companies from 2014 to 2023, we find that while performance declines are correlated with increased placement of women into leadership positions, this relationship is accounted for by the job categories firms fill while underperforming. After accounting for job categories, organizational decline predicts a lower likelihood of selecting external women for leadership positions, and contrary to the mechanisms proposed by the glass cliff literature, men-dominated firms are responsible for this effect. Our research provides a novel, theoretically driven account of how, why, and where organizational performance declines affect the advancement of women.
